PERBANDINGAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN NAÏVE METHOD DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KEPADATAN PENDUDUK DKI JAKARTA
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Institusion

Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara

Author

M. Hardon, M. Hardon
Ningrum, Rahma Farah
Cahyaningtyas, Rizqia

Subject

Teknik Informatika 

Datestamp

2023-05-31 06:53:39 

Abstract :
Forecasting is a prediction for the future using past data. This study aims to implement forecasting in the form of a Graphical User Interface by finding the best model by comparing the models used in forecasting Jakarta's population density in the future. The forecasting model used in this study is the Exponential Smoothing and Naive Method models which are included in the characteristics of stationary data patterns and short-term forecasting. From this study it was found that the best model used for forecasting Jakarta's population density is Exponential Smoothing (alpha = 0.5) with an RMSE value of 955,020 and a MAPE of 3%. The Naïve Method model with an RMSE value of 1114,467, and a MAPE of 4%. The results of forecasting have been implemented into a Graphical User Interface that can be used to perform forecasting with the functions that have been tested. 

File :
M. Hardon_Skripsi_Revisi.pdf