Peramalan Indeks Harga Komsumen (IHK) Bahan Makanan, Minuman dan Tembakau Pada Kota Penyangga IKN
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Kalimantan
Author
Rezki, Surya Muhammad
Subject
QA Mathematics
Datestamp
2023-07-18 07:15:36
Abstract :
The relocation of IKN to Kalimantan is one way to grow an equitable economy in Indonesia. One of the indicators and information that is important for economic growth is the development of prices of goods and services that are used as evaluation materials as well as materials for future development planning or called the consumer price index. From time to time the consumer price index experiences changes in fluctuations in the prices of goods and services for the community. One of the impacts is the increase in the food, beverage and tobacco sector. Therefore, research is conducted on consumer price index especially in food, beverages and tobacco sectors in the buffer cities of IKN namely Balikpapan City and Samarinda City from January 2015 to December 2022 with the help of intervention model analysis and double exponential smoothing event based, so that it can be expected to obtain consumer price forecasts in the food, beverage and tobacco sectors and can be an alternative method for forecasting CPI. Based on the results of the study, the best method was obtained from the results of the evaluation of methods and forecasting results, namely by using the double exponential smoothing event-based method using weight parameters (? = 0.9) and ? = 0.9 for the two IKN buffer cities with an error value of 1.19109% and 2. 34942%, while for the forecast results with the intervention method obtained in both cities between the actual data and the forecast data obtained in the testing data forecast results (year 2022) there is a considerable difference between the forecast results and the actual data while using the double exponential smoothing event based method, obtained in the testing data used obtained a forecast value that is close to the actual value.
The relocation of IKN to Kalimantan is one way to grow an equitable economy in Indonesia. One of the indicators and information that is important for economic growth is the development of prices of goods and services that are used as evaluation materials as well as materials for future development planning or called the consumer price index. From time to time the consumer price index experiences changes in fluctuations in the prices of goods and services for the community. One of the impacts is the increase in the food, beverage and tobacco sector. Therefore, research is conducted on consumer price index especially in food, beverages and tobacco sectors in the buffer cities of IKN namely Balikpapan City and Samarinda City from January 2015 to December 2022 with the help of intervention model analysis and double exponential smoothing event based, so that it can be expected to obtain consumer price forecasts in the food, beverage and tobacco sectors and can be an alternative method for forecasting CPI. Based on the results of the study, the best method was obtained from the results of the evaluation of methods and forecasting results, namely by using the double exponential smoothing event-based method using weight parameters (? = 0.9) and ? = 0.9 for the two IKN buffer cities with an error value of 1.19109% and 2. 34942%, while for the forecast results with the intervention method obtained in both cities between the actual data and the forecast data obtained in the testing data forecast results (year 2022) there is a considerable difference between the forecast results and the actual data while using the double exponential smoothing event based method, obtained in the testing data used obtained a forecast value that is close to the actual value.
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02191027_cover.pdf
02191027_statement_of_authenticity.pdf
02191027_notations.pdf
02191027_chapter_1.pdf
02191027_chapter_2.pdf
02191027_chapter_3.pdf
02191027_chapter_4.pdf
02191027_conclusions.pdf
02191027_bibliography.pdf
02191027_enclosure.pdf
02191027_Form. TA-020.pdf
02191027_publishing_agreement.pdf
02191027_approval_sheet.pdf
02191027_preface.pdf
02191027_abstract_id.pdf
02191027_abstract_en.pdf
02191027_table_of_content.pdf
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02191027_tables.pdf
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